Pokémon Shuffle

01/05/2016 9:41 PM ·Spoilers

Dear Journal, I've done the rough math and I play around 36 rounds a day. Given that we're more than 7 days into the event, I've played more than 252 rounds without seeing Camerupt. This would suggest that the chance of encountering Camerupt is less than 0.4%. I hate the Safari Zone event with more hate than the sum of all of the hate that you can hate with.

Yeahs3

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Chris

01/05/2016 9:47 PM ·Spoilers

According to r/PokemonShuffle on Reddit, the actual chance of finding Camerupt (found in the game's code) is 2%. Even so, I can understand how you feel with being unable to find him. I JUST NOW found him after a week of quitting out of non-Camerupt Safari challenges.

Yeahs0
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Chris

01/05/2016 9:48 PM ·Spoilers

As long as you have a powerful team that's all anti-Ground (find a Ground-type in the Main stages, hit Optimize, then go back to the Safari), you should have no trouble catching him once you finally find him, if you have the Coins for a Great Ball. I won with 12 out of 18 moves left, got an extra 36% catchability on top of the base 30%, and caught him in one try.

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Yeahs0
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Chris

01/05/2016 10:23 PM ·Spoilers

Thanks. I was actually interested in hearing what the actual odds are supposed to be, as it helps me figure out how much of a statistical oddity I will eventually become. Also, I did alter the make-up of my team based on your advice, though I'm thinking about swapping Mega-Gengar back into the slot that I put mega-blastoise into.

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Yeahs0
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Ryu Suzaku

01/05/2016 10:30 PM ·Spoilers

Really? I read on GameFaqs that you have a 99% chance of encountering Camerupt after 228 hearts.

Yeahs0
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Chris

01/05/2016 10:38 PM ·Spoilers

Well then I've got a super-high probability of encountering him then, and I should be seeing him any time now.

Yeahs1
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Chris

01/05/2016 10:42 PM ·Spoilers

Ryu, hopefully that winds up being true. It'd be a shame if Chris continues to get that supposed 1% chance. Chris, I would advise going all-out on power instead of bringing along your pseudo-Complexity -1, since Camerupt's HP is fairly low at about 3,000. (Actually, it's exactly 3,170, according to r/PokemonShuffle.) With the team you see here, I barely had time to Mega Evolve before I had won.

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Yeahs0
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Chris

01/05/2016 10:49 PM ·Spoilers

I'm currently operating with this team. I have a question. Does quitting a round speed up when I get to play again? I've been playing every round out because the only time I've ever got 5 hearts is when I first wake up in the morning, and Palkia needs the experience.

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Yeahs0
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Chris

01/05/2016 10:52 PM ·Spoilers

Unfortunately, quitting out of non-Camerupt fights does not decrease the wait time between plays. Regardless of what you do, hearts will still take the full 30 minutes to regenerate. Quitting via the HOME Menu won't help, since the game immediately saves the heart consumption as soon as you start a stage.

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Stuart

01/06/2016 7:10 AM ·Spoilers

Which goes to show that anecdotal evidence is *not* data. Statisticians don't count anything less than 10,000 attempts to be "significant" as there is too much deviation below that, especially with low percentages.

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Chris

01/06/2016 6:10 PM ·Spoilers

That's true, because anomalies like myself exist in almost any sample group. My comment wasn't meant to imply that the actual appear rate of Camerupt programmed into the game was the <0.4% that I was experiencing, but more a bitter commentary on random number generators in video games.

Yeahs1
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